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The Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic in a World Context
Timko, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
In this thesis we examine the effect of foreign exchange interventions in small open economy, focusing on the Czech experience. In the first part we model volatility development before and after the intervention using GARCH model. In the second part we estimate relationship between macroeconomical variables using vector autoregressive model. In this part we estimate impulse response function of exchange rate and inflation. In second part of VAR modeling we provide counterfactual analysis, which compare actual development of variables with alternative scenario in which the interventions would not happen . Our results suggest that the interventions is associated with few months delayed decrease in volatility. Base on scenario analysis the interventions increased inflation by approximately 1.5 % and without the intervention the economy would in deflation around -1 % nowadays. KEYWORDS: Vector autoregression, Volatility modelling, Monetary policy, Intervention Author's e-mail: jantimko16@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.holub@cnb.cz
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Yield curve dynamics: Co-movements of latent global and Czech yield curves
Šimáně, Jaromír ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focus on a yield curve modelling. It estimates unobserved "global" yield curve factors which drives changes in individual real yield curves. Yield curves of USD, GBP, JPY and EUR are considered and global factors are able to explain substantial part of their variances. The method is built on the Nelson-Siegel model which is implemented in a state-space form to be able to extract the unobserved yield factors. The estimated global yield factors are further used for explaining the evolution of the Czech yield curve. Their impact to the Czech yield curve is estimated in a time-varying regression which results show that the impact of the global factors is stronger during the years of the interventions of the Czech National Bank and thus suggests that the interventions help to transmit the global low interest rates to the Czech economy.
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Yield curve dynamics: Co-movements of latent global and Czech yield curves
Šimáně, Jaromír ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focus on a yield curve modelling. It estimates unobserved "global" yield curve factors which drives changes in individual real yield curves. Yield curves of USD, GBP, JPY and EUR are considered and global factors are able to explain substantial part of their variances. The method is built on the Nelson-Siegel model which is implemented in a state-space form to be able to extract the unobserved yield factors. The estimated global yield factors are further used for explaining the evolution of the Czech yield curve. Their impact to the Czech yield curve is estimated in a time-varying regression which results show that the impact of the global factors is stronger during the years of the interventions of the Czech National Bank and thus suggests that the interventions help to transmit the global low interest rates to the Czech economy.
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The Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic in a World Context
Timko, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
In this thesis we examine the effect of foreign exchange interventions in small open economy, focusing on the Czech experience. In the first part we model volatility development before and after the intervention using GARCH model. In the second part we estimate relationship between macroeconomical variables using vector autoregressive model. In this part we estimate impulse response function of exchange rate and inflation. In second part of VAR modeling we provide counterfactual analysis, which compare actual development of variables with alternative scenario in which the interventions would not happen . Our results suggest that the interventions is associated with few months delayed decrease in volatility. Base on scenario analysis the interventions increased inflation by approximately 1.5 % and without the intervention the economy would in deflation around -1 % nowadays. KEYWORDS: Vector autoregression, Volatility modelling, Monetary policy, Intervention Author's e-mail: jantimko16@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.holub@cnb.cz
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Monetary policy of CNB in zero lower bound
Bohatec, Martin ; Ševčíková, Michaela (advisor) ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (referee)
This thesis deals with CNB interventions in favor of the exchange rate depreciation of November 2013. The theoretical part presents alternative tools for unconventional monetary policy when zero lower bound is binding. This thesis then describes the experience of other central banks that responded to low interest rates. Intervention of CNB is contextualized in the Czech financial system and previous economic development. The thesis analyses alternative instruments which CNB might have accessed. Based on the analyzed data this thesis concludes that despite the long-term maintenance of weakened Koruna above the level of announced exchange rate pledge the sufficiently loose monetary policy was not translated into desired price increase.
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